NFL Win Probabilities and Chances of Going Over/Under Win Totals | SBD – Sports Betting Dime

NFL Win Probabilities and Chances of Going Over/Under Win Totals | SBD – Sports Betting Dime

Each spring, sportsbooks give bettors a gift when they release the opening lines for every week of the upcoming NFL season. The gift is not the ability to place a bet on a Week 13 game you think presents value, but rather the pieces of a (complex) puzzle that when put together properly, give you a detailed picture of what sportsbooks are expecting from each team this season.

Using these opening lines, I’ve already put together SBD’s NFL Power Rankings, which is based on an ATS +/- for all teams from Weeks 1-16. I’ve gone one step – or maybe 87 steps – further with these opening spreads, though.

We’re going to Tarantino this one. Let me give you the end result quickly, and then we’ll take our time in walking back through how we got here.

Best Over/Under Bets on 2020 NFL Win Totals

Teams to Bet OVER on Win Total Win Total Over Probability Teams to Bet UNDER on Win Total Win Total Under Probability
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 67.4% Las Vegas Raiders 7.5 73.1%
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 63.1% Denver Broncos 7.5 62.7%
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 61.8% Atlanta Falcons 7.5 61.2%
Green Bay Packers 8.5 61.7% Cleveland Browns 8.5 60.5%
San Francisco 49ers 10.5 60.1% Miami Dolphins 6.5 60.5%

It’s no coincidence that three of the five best under bets for the 2020 NFL season all rank in the top six for toughest schedules based on our proper NFL SOS model. Our top over bet also enjoys the easiest strength of schedule this season.