Day: September 13, 2020

NFL Week 1 Picks: A Winning Betting System Backing Last Season’s Worst Teams – The Action Network

Many bettors use the terms “betting against the public” and “contrarian betting” interchangeably; however, the former is really a subset of the latter.

The main idea behind contrarian betting is finding value by being willing to bet on undervalued teams as oddsmakers will often shade lines toward the popular or better straight-up team in a given matchup.

One of the most common mistakes made by recreational bettors is by overemphasizing the most recent results. It’s easy to see a blowout in primetime and let that affect wagering decisions for the upcoming week of NFL games, but that’s exactly what oddsmakers are expecting as well.

And when it comes to early-season NFL games, bettors overwhelmingly lean on the previous season’s results, despite an entire offseason that includes the NFL Draft, roster turnover, coaching/system changes, etc.

Savvy bettors willing to stomach backing last year’s worst teams can find edges through the first few weeks of a new NFL season, and historical data shows just how valuable this strategy can be.

NFL Week 1 Betting System

Since 2005, teams that won six or fewer games the previous year are 152-140-8 (52.1%) against the spread (ATS) through the first three weeks of an NFL season.

Due to the customary -110 vig that sportsbooks charge in order to wager on spreads, bettors need to win 52.38% ATS in order break even, so blindly betting all teams that won just six or fewer games last season is not

Sunday Scaries: The NFL Week 1 Bets You Should Avoid – Deadspin

Today, every sports outlet will give you a deluge of betting guides, pick em’s, predictions and an obligatory ULTIMATE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

Don’t fall for this. Unless, of course, you’re following my colleague Matt Zylbert.

The best gamblers nail around 55 percent of their picks. Sure, gambling is about pushing thin edges. But what other “profession” misses the mark 45 percent of the time? If a meteorologist predicts the hourly forecast like a sports gambler predicts a sports game, you would never leave the house without an umbrella.

Gambling gurus will tell you who to pick or cover or fade. What few will do is tell you what games to stay the hell away from.

The Sunday Scaries will give you four bets to avoid every week so you dont waste all your money making picks some wannabe prognosticator told you to make.

You’re welcome.

Let’s dive into Week 1 which is, historically, unpredictable. A smart bettor, if such a person exists, stays away from Week 1 in general. But this opening sunday, in particular, poses an added challenge with teams jumping into the deep end without playing without a preseason.

Oh, and this year there’s the looming threat of a pandemic shutting down a team or the season at any time.

What could go wrong?